Total construction output volume will grow by 4.2% in Great Britain this year before slowing to 3.7% in 2016, a market research firm is predicting.
Economists from Leading Edge have come up with forecasts for construction output for the coming years. At 2011 prices, 2015 GB output will be 4.2% more than 2014, despite the potential for the general election to cause a hiatus in work. 2016 will see 3.7% growth, the firm says.
By 2018, total construction output will be 6% higher than the 2007 peak of £128.3bn, Leading Edge is forecasting.
Based on actual data for the first 10 months of 2014, last year is expected to end up with output at around £120.7bn at 2011 prices.
Leading Edge managing director Mel Budd said:
“We had previously forecast good growth in 2014 although the size of the increase was higher than expected mainly due to the strong rise in housing output which will end up with year on year growth of 20% plus for 2014”.
Although private housing and commercial still lag behind the peak levels of seven or eight years ago, they will still be the biggest drivers of growth in 2015 and beyond. The repair and maintenance sectors will also continue to see steady growth, the firm’s economists predict.
Mr Budd added:
“New orders showed a small increase in Q3 2014 although there were some big variations by sector. We saw big decreases in public housing and industrial new orders, although we expect industrial to bounce back fairly quickly in 2015. Industrial output has shown good growth in 2014 and is forecast to continue this in 2015. However, it is still well below the peak output levels reached in recent years.
“Our analysis of regional performance shows that London and the southeast accounted for around 36% of total GB output in 2014. These two are expected to continue to grow strongly although 2015 will see a better performance from the other regions.”